Written by Nasser Kandil,
The Turkish aspirations to a regional role greater than what can be achieved through being in between an axis led by Washington and an axis led by Moscow have been coincided with Washington’s calculations of the ongoing transformations in the region, which means the start of a new stage. Iran and the resistance forces are preparing to make fundamental changes in the balances of powers in the face of Washington on the basis of the success in avoiding governmental crises in Lebanon and Iraq, and to make a fundamental change in the Iranian political scene from the gate of the recent parliamentary elections which were held under the slogan of the parliament of QassemSoleimani. These changes are in order to implement the plan announced by Imam Ali Khamenei as the second stage after the completion of the first stage entitled “the ability” and to turn the challenge resulted from the assassination of the Commander QassemSoleimani and the announcement of the Deal of the Century into an opportunity to activate the confrontation with Washington, to escalate the resistance in Palestine, to transfer the conflict into new qualitative stage that cannot be affected, and to escalate the political and military campaign to remove the American forces from Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria under the slogan of ousting the Americans from the region.
The American movement has focused on the attempts to obstruct the governments of Iraq and Lebanon in order to confuse the resistance forces in them and on the attempt to accelerate the negotiation with Taliban to reach to a cease-fire. It knows that Iran’s allies can disable it, but it tries to precede them to an understandingbetween the Afghani government and Talibanin order to maintain the American presence in Afghanistan. The Afghani allies of Iran keep the slogan of the complete departure of the Americans otherwise no settlements, understandings, cease-fire can be taken. In Iraq, the positions that hinder the birth of the government of the Prime Minister Mohammed TawfikAllawi and their relation with the political consensus on refusing the idea of the American withdrawal under the slogan of preventing the Iranian dominationand confronting the renewed threat of ISIS clarify the positions of the Americans towards them. While the position of Al SayyedMoqtada Al-Sadr who represents after the reference authority the crucial voice in forming an environment for confronting ISIS refuted the credibility of the forces which Washington bet on, so it is difficult to accuse him of the subordination to Iran as long as he is at the forefront of the forces that support the government and call for the departure of the Americans.
Syria forms a decisive part in this confrontation. It wages the confrontation with additional complications and entanglements, where Russia plays a crucial and reference role, where Israel is capable of disrupting, where Turkey plays an elusive role in an attempt to get more gains, and in disrupting the path which is progressing in all the arenas to reach to the moment of confrontation according to the American bets, and where the battles of the domination of the Syrian army on the countryside of Aleppo and Idlib play an important role in opening the battle of ousting the Americans from Syria. As the Israeli role seems restricted with seasonal raids, Tel Aviv is aware of its inability to transcend their containable ceilings; the resolving Russian position has formed an element of superiority to the axis of resistance and has dropped many bets and illusions. While the military victories achieved by the Syrian army in the field especially after opening Damascus-Aleppo Road formed a half achievement, but the direct Turkish military intervention on behalf of Washington and Tel Aviv has disrupted the other half of achievement; the opening ofLatakia-Aleppo road, which means restricting the Turkish role in the city of Idlib, waiting for political developments and which means a presence that can be accustomed to during the stage of opening theissueof the American presence in Syria.
The mediation of the Europeans represented by France and Germany in the negotiations of cease-fire under the intimidation of a board Turkish military operation and the call for a Russian-Turkish-French- German quartet summit will not benefit the Turkish position or the American calculations unless Washington is ready to wage a comprehensive battle. But it is certain that it is not within the possibilities. The Russian position supported by the Syrian and Iranian positions is strong regarding putting the issue of the terrorism and its danger to Europe on the table, and linking the cease-fire with the implementation of Turkey’s commitment to eliminate the terrorist groups and to isolate the opposition. The Turkish President will find that his options are limited between waging the losing military battle alone and facilitating the battle of eliminating the terrorist groups and being away from the confrontation, and sufficient with neutralizing the city of Idlib for a successive stage after removing the heavy disarmament, ensuring the shelter for the displaced in it, considering it a symbol of the safety of the civilians, and spreading the Russian-Turkish patrols waiting for a political solution.
Due to the lack of courage of acknowledging that the major transformations in the region are in favor of the resistance axis and the inability to take the option of the comprehensive hopeless confrontation, the wars by proxy adopted by the Americansbecome mere attempts for gaining time.
Translated by LinaShehadeh,